Crisis and Escalation in Cyberspace by Martin C. Libicki

Author:Martin C. Libicki [Libicki, Martin C.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 978-0-8330-7680-9
Publisher: RAND Corporation
Published: 2012-01-15T00:00:00+00:00

Escalation Risks for Contained Local Conflicts

In theory, operational cyberwar—carrying out cyberattacks on targets that are considered legitimate war targets—should not be considered escalatory. It is just another way to accomplish the same end, and with fewer lives at risk. But sometimes, an act is judged escalatory based not on what it does but how it does it (e.g., taking out a bunker with chemical weapons is considered more heinous than doing the same job with high explosives).12 The Japanese considered the first use of firebombing (March 1945) to be escalatory even though the attack on Dresden, Germany, had already taken place. The use of cruise missiles in Bosnia (1995) was considered escalatory.13 Although it is unclear whether such sentiments were anything more than sentiments (because neither target could escalate in response), the broader point stands.

If opponents believe that cyberweapons have mysterious effects, their use will be seen as escalatory even though, measured in terms of actual effects, they should not be. Adversaries may also convince themselves that, although the cyberattacks per se were in bounds, their use against military targets portends their use against civilian targets because the latter can be surreptitiously attacked via cyberspace even if kinetic attacks on them would be universally considered off-limits. Again, it depends on what adversaries think.

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